Bet what you know,
not who you are.
Private positions on a real Gnosis Conditional-Tokens prediction market, built on iExec Nox. Your direction and size are encrypted through settlement — only epoch totals ever go public. Four identical transactions; one dissenter; unfindable.
Ethereum Sepolia · recomputable from chain with noxoracle verify-epoch 1 · zero mock data
Same epoch, two views. The market — and every other bettor — only ever sees the public totals. Your direction and size are decryptable solely by you, through and after settlement.
Will ETH close above $5,000 on Aug 15, 2026?
verify-epoch 1 recomputes invariants I1–I5 from chain data alone — aggregates decrypt to YES 1,700 / NO 500, real FPMM buys, Dana’s sealed claim of the full pot. Zero mock.
- 1Commit private
Two sealed handles — direction hidden
YES NO - 2Epoch closes
Commit window ends
- 3Aggregates decrypt
Only YES / NO totals go public
- 4Route through FPMM
Real Gnosis market, one batch
- 5Claim private
Winnings paid in sealed cUSD
Runs on the official Gnosis Conditional Tokens (1.0.3) + FixedProductMarketMaker (1.8.1), deployed byte-for-byte from npm artifacts and CI bytecode-hash-checked. The full commit → aggregate → FPMM buy → claim cycle ran on Ethereum Sepolia.
The underlying Gnosis market is untouched. Privacy lives in a thin confidential layer around it — the market learns the information (epoch totals) without ever learning the informant (your position).
Below k=3 the k-gate refuses to reveal an epoch — with one bettor the aggregate is the individual. We ship that deliberately-bad exhibit on the Verify page. Amounts are whole-cUSD; a pinned beta Nox SDK + Intel TDX liveness are trusted. No overclaiming.
Can anyone see who bet which way?
No. A bet is committed as two encrypted amounts (a YES-stake and a NO-stake, one of which is an encrypted zero), so your direction never exists in plaintext — it is an encrypted handle. Individual direction and size stay hidden through and after settlement.
Is the market real, or a simulation?
Real. NoxOracle sits on the official Gnosis Conditional Tokens (1.0.3) + FixedProductMarketMaker (1.8.1), deployed byte-for-byte from the npm artifacts and CI bytecode-hash-checked (invariant I5: CTF MATCH, FPMM master MATCH). Nothing about the underlying market is modified.
What actually becomes public?
Only the epoch aggregates. At epoch close the YES/NO totals are publicly decrypted and routed through the FPMM in one batch. Individual positions are never revealed — the market learns the information without learning the informant.
How are winners paid without leaking stakes?
Winners are paid in confidential cUSD at a public pot/pool rate (a Nox multiply/divide by a public scalar), so the claim reveals nothing about the individual stake. In epoch 1, Dana claimed exactly the pot — 1,626.1277 cUSD.
Is this a mock?
No. The full cycle — commit-private → batch-execute-public-aggregate → claim-private — ran end-to-end on Ethereum Sepolia: 4 private commits (k=4), aggregates decrypting to YES 1,700 / NO 500, real FPMM buys, and Dana’s sealed claim. verify-epoch 1 recomputes it from chain data alone. See the Verify page.
Take a position nobody can trace back to you.
A real Gnosis market, a private commit, and only the epoch totals ever go public. Watch the full confidential cycle recompute itself from chain data.